What disasters will El Niño bring over the next year?
New Scientist 2026-10-05 11:00:00
Context: A powerful El Niño event is currently developing in the tropical Pacific, expected to persist for months and bring extreme weather to various parts of the world. The event, described as the strongest El Niño on record, has already led to accelerated wildfires in Indonesia, respiratory illnesses, and increased carbon emissions. As it strengthens, it is likely to unleash a range of disasters, including hurricanes, typhoons, floods, and droughts, affecting regions such as Indonesia, the Philippines, East Africa, and Peru.
Key Facts
- Wildfires in Indonesia's rainforests and peat soils had burned around 1000 square kilometers by June, with the area doubling in just a month, and doubling again, leading to hundreds of thousands of people facing respiratory illness and carbon emissions on track to equal Indonesia's catastrophic 2015 fires.
- The El Niño event is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash floods to southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, while also causing rainfall to reach the lowest levels in 75 years in countries like Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, threatening maize harvests and potentially leading to famine.
- Nearly two dozen typhoons hit east Asia in the autumn during the three previous super El Niños, including super typhoon Koppu, which destroyed thousands of buildings and killed at least 47 people in the Philippines in October 2015.
- The US, UK, and other high-income countries have slashed foreign aid budgets in recent years, leaving the United Nations with insufficient funding to provide adequate support for El Niño response plans in vulnerable countries like Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan.